By Todd Spangler, Detroit Free Press

Nov. 23–WASHINGTON — With Congress home for the Thanksgiving holiday, the Obama administration provided members of the House and the Senate a little something today it hopes will make health care reform more palatable for their constituencies: new estimates on how many millions of people it says will be helped.

In Michigan, that translates to 1.3 million people the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services says are without insurance and 459,000 state residents with individual policies now who stand to get guaranteed coverage for less on a national insurance exchange.

The agency released state-by-state estimates based on data provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute. Said HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, “The reports give us a clearer picture of the kind of change health reform will bring.”

The administration push comes at a critical moment: When senators return from Thanksgiving break next week, they will begin debate on the mammoth legislation with an eye toward passing it in the short time left before the end of the year.

To do so, majority Democrats will have to beat back attempts by Republican critics to derail a bill they argue will actually increase health care costs for many and carries an $848-billion 10-year price tag which is too much for the nation to bear. At the same time, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have to answer concerns of moderate Democrats anxious about spending, reductions to Medicare and a so-called public option government plan which has drawn conservative fire.

President Barack Obama’s White House has made passing health care reform a priority and, with the state-by-state sheets released today, makes a case that despite the compromises made so far in the Senate, that chamber’s bill still carries a huge potential effect by cutting the number of uninsured, partially closing the benefit gap in prescription drug services for seniors and ensuring that no one is turned away from affordable coverage because of a preexisting condition.

The administration says nearly 800,000 Michigan residents could qualify for federal subsidies to help pay for affordable insurance coverage purchased through a new national exchange created to enhance competition and that 1.6 million seniors — the number now on Medicare in the state — will finally get free preventive coverage through the program.

The Michigan report also concludes that:

–An estimated 192,000 early retirees could be helped with a reinsurance plan that will help cover the cost of their catastrophic claims for a few years.

–Some 279,000 Medicare beneficiaries who fall in the prescription drug benefit gap will see the price of brand name drugs cut in half.

Without health reform, the report said, Michigan’s uninsured population would increase to 1.6 million by 2019.

Some of the report’s numbers raise questions, however. For instance, the report from the Urban Institute and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation estimates Michigan’s uninsured population at 1.3 million, though the state set that number at 1.15 million in 2008. (The rise in unemployment, however, could explain the difference.) Even if the 1.3 million figure is correct, the Congressional Budget Office has concluded that nationally the Senate reform bill will cover about 94% of the total population, not everyone.

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